The distinguished rugby journalist Peter Bills sitting on the Murrayfield media benches turned to a press colleague after an hour of play and said:  “You know, Scotland could win this one, if they had the self-belief.”

It was an astute point, well made. Craig Paterson has just kicked his fifth penalty to put Scotland ahead 15-13 against Ireland in the RBS Six Nations. Five minutes later the Scots increased their lead by five points when Paterson converted his sixth penalty caused by an Irish offence.

With 12 minutes left on the clock, Scotland were being asked to show they had the grit and composure to win. However, they blew it

In the after-match press conference, Frank Hadden, Scotland’s coach, said he was “bitterly disappointed” and refused to find anything positive in the performance against the Irish after the debacle with Italy.

“Ireland were there for the beating, but we didn’t perform well enough. I take nothing at all from this. It means nothing. We see this as a missed opportunity against the second best side in the world to give the performance we know we are capable of. Even if we’d been in front at the final whistle, I would still have been disappointed with the way we played,” he said sternly.

Frank Hadden is the expert in such matters. But from a spectator’s point of view, Scotland second half performance was much tougher and more solid. There was much to feel positive about. There appeared to be a growing sense of belief among the team, and very visible encouragement among the players that they were at least competing with the Irish. Scott Murray, now Scotland’s most capped player, put in an inspirational display, while Sean Lamont and Rob Dewey pressed the Irish defence to the limit.

Frank Hadden admitted that his team had underestimated how badly the defeat by Italy had knocked the collective team confidence. Sure, there was a lack of urgency at the start of the Irish game, and O’Gara’s early penalty to put Ireland 3-0 in the lead suggested a wobble. Dan Parks' kamikaze kick which allowed O'Gara to intercept and score his try reminded the Scots supporters of the Italian fiasco. Yet the Scots held their cool and were able to keep up with the Irish in what Eddie O-Sullivan, the Irish coach, described as a “dog fight”.

And the difference in the end was self-belief. O’Sullivan said he had expected the Scots to come back strongly after the humiliation by Italy.

He didn’t believe any of the hype in the media about a barrel load of points for Ireland. “We always knew it would be down to a few points either way late in the game.”

He certainly didn’t expect wounded Scotland to lie down and be a push-over. He described the game as a “good, tough battle” and the Scots as “honorable fellows” – despite the controversy over the Ronan O’Gara strangulation incident.

Ireland were able to dig out a victory when they didn’t play the scintillating rugby which mesmerised the English at Croke Park two weeks’ earlier. O’Sullivan said his guys were battle-weary at the end of a long hard spell of rugby. He explained that his role was not of coach by in rugby management, dealing with the balance between work and rest.

And, in the end, it was an uncompromising and grinding battle between Scotland and Ireland which nearly boiled over at times. It wasn’t the beautiful running game that the crowd had expected. But O’Sullivan's view was clear: “When you’re in a dog fight, it’s important to win it.”

And that was the difference in the final ten minutes. Scotland were in sight of a victory. But they panicked, lost their focus and conceded two very lame penalties with minutes ticking away. For Scotland, there was a real prospect of victory, an idea that was completely out of the question two weeks previously when O’Gara, Girvan Dempsey, Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’Arcy, Denis Hickie and the rest, were being hailed as the best Irish team. Ever. And Scotland had been thumped by six minutes of self-destruction.

But the Irish game will have been cathartic for the Scots. They now know they can compete. They need to string together three of four big performances. And they need to be able to take their chances and believe that they can win. That was the difference at the end of this tense and tough encounter. Ireland carved out a result – for them that was all that mattered. There was no great joy in winning the Triple Crown. For Scotland, Frank Hadden is harsh in his assessment, but he’s probably right. Scotland had a chance of winning – but couldn’t take it. In this case, the team’s self-belief was not strong enough.